Could Saanich—Gulf Islands send May to Parliament?
A Barbara Yaffe column in the Vancouver Sun this week prompted a series of media stories speculating that Green Party leader Elizabeth May will run in Saanich—Gulf Islands (SGI) in the next federal election. Yaffe may have jumped the gun on this one, as a final decision has yet to be made (note the absence of direct quotes from May in the article). But as May told Canwest, “I am so strongly leaning toward running here and I have got the most wonderful response.”
The Greens have made electing Elizabeth May our top priority in the next election. With this in mind, we have focused on determining which of Canada’s 308 ridings is the most fertile ground for a Green breakthrough. It’s no secret that polls have been commissioned, and that several ridings have been under consideration, including SGI, Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, Guelph, and, until recently, Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley, where a by-election will eventually be called to replace the formidable Bill Casey. When May announces her chosen riding, I know this crucial decision will be made based on the best available polling and other information.
Personally, I’ll be very pleased should May decide to run in SGI. Of all the ridings under consideration, it’s abundantly clear that SGI offers the very best shot at sending May to Parliament. Here’s why.
If the Green Party has a base, it’s in BC. The GPBC, founded by Adriane Carr in 1983, was the first Green Party in North America, and, as a result, Green politics have been on the radar for decades in BC. British Columbians are used to considering the Green Party as a viable alternative to the old-line parties (the GPBC consistently brings home 8-12% of the vote — more than in any other province). It goes without saying that environmental protection is a hot issue in BC, and there’s a clear recognition that Greens have the best environmental policies. BC voters have already elected many Greens to municipal governments. All of this to say that BC is Green-friendly territory. With many seasoned Green campaigners in the province, a SGI run for May would also mean an influx of experienced, BC-knowledgeable, high-quality volunteers.
SGI is already one of the greenest ridings in Canada. Voters there have given serious consideration to the Green Party as an electoral force since the 2004 election, when the riding was touted as our best chance to elect a Green, with candidate Andrew Lewis winning a record 17% of the vote — the best ever federal result ever to that date. Provincially, Lewis won over 25% in 2001. In recognition of the popularity of the Greens in SGI, the Liberals and NDP recruited former Green activists as candidates in the 2008 election — a clear indication that voters in SGI hold Green values near and dear, and that our issues are ballot questions.
Also relevant is the strong anti-Conservative sentiment in SGI. Conservative cabinet minister Gary Lunn has held the riding since 1997, but has managed to keep his seat only because the progressive vote is split between the Liberals, NDP and Greens. Progressives in the riding have acknowledged the problem of vote splitting and have gone so far as to launch a Shun Lunn campaign, encouraging voters to rally around one of Lunn’s opponents to vote him out. Strategic voting website Vote for Environment also showcased SGI in 2008, urging voters to vote Liberal to defeat Lunn. Liberal candidate Briony Penn came within a few points of knocking off Gary Lunn. Clearly, many voters in the riding want to rid themselves of Gary Lunn, but have been unable to rally around a single opponent. Introduce Elizabeth May into the equation, and you’ve got a rallying point. In previous campaigns, May has easily built support among voters who usually support other parties, and I expect SGI would be no exception.
Of less significance, but still noteworthy, is that Tommy Douglas represented the Nanaimo—Cowichan—The Islands from 1969 to 1979, which then encompassed part of the territory now included in SGI. Perhaps a further indication of SGI’s historical progressive leanings.
Some Greens think May should run in Guelph, based mostly on the fact that the party did well there last time, and that it’s near Toronto. There are actually compelling reasons for May not to run in Guelph. The overwhelming consideration is that Guelph was won by rookie Liberal Frank Valeriote in the October 2008 election, despite Stephane Dion’s disaster of an election campaign. Any riding that could elect a first-time Liberal, despite horrendous approval ratings for Dion and after the worst national Liberal campaign in history, is not a smart bet for May. Valeriote’s victory indicates the strength of Liberals in the riding, and the dedication of Valeriote’s base. Although Green Mike Nagy was a fantastic candidate, ran one of the best campaigns in the country and was endorsed by the Guelph Mercury, it was not enough to block a Valeriote victory. Valeriote has an additional advantage in that Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff is becoming more popular and is getting his party’s act together.
Gary Lunn, on the other hand, is vulnerable. He is widely viewed as a poor performer in cabinet, and was punished for his failings as Natural Resources minister (remember the first isotope crisis?) by being demoted to Minister of State for Sport in 2008. Conservative popularity is waning. And he was nearly knocked off by his (greenish) Liberal opponent last time around, despite the aforementioned Worst Liberal Campaign Ever. Given the expected dynamic of the next election campaign, a weak Conservative is a far easier target than a stronger Liberal.
Also, consider the local press reaction to the possibility of Elizabeth May’s candidacy. When news that May was considering Guelph reached the local media, the Guelph Mercury rejected her candidacy, opining that a local Green should run in Guelph. In Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, the Owen Sound Sun Times stated, in no uncertain terms, that BGOS is “the wrong riding” for Elizabeth May, and that she would be dismissed as a “Johnny-come-lately”. In contrast, SGI media view her potential candidacy more favourably.
And what of Elizabeth May? After a mere three months as Green leader, May pulled in 26% of the vote in the London North Centre by-election, surprising the nation with her second place finish. Despite pundits’ predictions of a last-place finish in Central Nova, seen as Green-hostile territory by many, May brought home another second place finish, increasing the Green vote from less than 2% to over 32%. Elizabeth May is a star candidate and a dynamic and tireless campaigner. I worked day and night on her previous campaigns, and saw her win over voters with her charm and wit, solid grasp of complex policy ideas, and inspiring vision for Canada and communities. With her impressive electoral record in ridings that are not seen as especially Green-friendly (and certainly less so than SGI), Elizabeth May has a great chance at pulling off a victory in SGI.
Of course, there’s no doubt that Greens will have to fight tooth and nail for our first seat. Wherever May runs, we will need to run the most airtight ground campaign in Green Party history. We will need to ID every possible voter. We need air campaign strategies to counter the dirty tricks that other parties will inevitably play (SGI has a history of funny business). But with focus, commitment, and by pulling together as a team, we can and must elect our first Green MP in the next election.
Scridb filter
Hi Camille,
I think that you are spot on about Elizabeth`s ability to campaign hard, and to win over a lot of people. This holds true no matter where she runs. I think though that your analysis of the desirability of running against a Conservative as opposed to a Liberal is fundamentally, and demonstrably flawed. It boils down to the fact that Liberals are twice as inclined to vote Green as Conservatives. That will hold true for the next election, no less than past elections. Brionny had the deck stacked in her favour in SGI, to an extent not likely replicable this fall. If the Liberals, and Dippers run total losers, (which I doubt they will, check out Rene Heatherington), then there still aren`t enough votes to beat the CPC margin. B-G-O-S is a write-off for the same reason. It will be very difficult to win over CPC voters. For internal political reasons, which I won`t go into, Guelph might be a bad choice, but SGI will be very difficult. Hopefully the good ground war you`re talking about will come to pass. It had better. Just a suggestion though, start thinking NOW about how you`re going to win over 10,000 grannies in retirement homes, because they ARE going to vote, and based on past behaviour, they are going to vote for Lunn.
It’s not as simple as a Liberal vs as a Conservative, but has more to do with the dynamics of any one riding. In this case, SGI has a weak Conservative, and Guelph has a stronger Liberal. But that aside, I’m confident the polling and other info used to select a riding will lead to a sound decision. After all, do you really think May would move all the way to the other side of the country (away from her aging father and young daughter) to run in a riding that is suboptimal? Guelph is much closer to her family than SGI and I’m guessing she’d jump at the chance to run closer to home if an internal analysis showed she could win.
Also, old people loooove love Elizabeth! She visited all kinds of retirement homes in LNC, and was always very warmly received.
I think you make some fair points Camille. I don’t know SGI to know how much of an issue parachuting is likely to be.
I helped out on LNC as well and certainly found the urban parts of the riding to be warm to the Greens and especially Elizabeth. The newer suburban parts (north end) not so much and I didn’t canvass much in the east end, but it was apparent when scrutineering out there that Glen had a very strong base (lots of signs and soundly won the polls I was at).
But the most important issue is whether her parachuting in becomes the ballot question. Local campaigns matter a lot in BGOS. The matter a little less in Guelph since it is slightly more urban are and closer to Toronto, but they still matter quite a bit.
If the other local candidates can get the ballot question to be: “She’s not from around here” she is dead. The same way that John Tory died in HKLB in a “safe” PC riding.
Being from around that area I just don’t think Guelph is the right fit. I actually think Kitchener-Waterloo is a better fit, but the gap is probably a bit too wide there (and Cathy is a great candidate).
I trust Elizabeth’s judgment in where she wants to run.
What both comments and this post ignore are the internal polling that has taken place in SGI and Guelph. Although none of us are privy to it, I would tend to agree that both locations could be very attractive and should be tested with polling.
Having not seen the polling data, a lot of this is speculation. My hunch is that SGI has all the necessary characterists (as highlighted above and in comments I made on Matt’s blog post). But, my hunch ain’t worth much if not backed up by unbiased polling data.
If SGI is the eventual choice, I think that the internal polling will have been the reason. Then, in this possible fall election, look both to SGI and a few others for possible breakthrough(s).
Rob, from what I understand of SGI, it’s a riding where many residents have, themselves, come from other corners of the country (or planet, even). While I will be surprised if the parachuting angle doesn’t enter the debate at all, my sense is that it won’t be as big an issue as it could be in other ridings.
Mike, I think you’re absolutely right — polling data is key.
Yeah, I agree with Greg, mostly. The key is to answer the question, “How are we going to bridge the gap?”, the answer to which is only partly “How wide is the gap?”
The quantitative analysis is nice, and would be even nicer if supported by larger polls with smaller errors. Also surveys to quantify response to the campaign themes, messages etc.
IMHO,the main selection criteria should be tight 3-way or 4-way races, with some decent membership numbers. If you want my totally honest opinion, I think that we’re still premature in expecting a win anywhere. Eventual victory will happen in a riding very much like Guelph, with a University, Liberal, or NDP incumbent, tight 4 way race, 100 plus motivated GPC members, and 10,000 previously ID’d supporters. (Note that in LNC there were actually more ID’d voters than actually cast a ballot). Still, I guess that Camille has to be upbeat. I guess this post eliminates the last 5% doubt I had as to where EMay will be running, so let us now see how the chips fall.
There is only disaster in her running in SGI. She will lose again and the press will point to her running now in three different ridings without success. Briony, if she runs again, will prevent Elizabeth from winning. The GPC has poured masses of money into SGI and we really have little to show for it.
I’d much rather see her run again in Central Nova. That is her home.
I dislike parachute candidates whoever they are.
And Camille, by the same token that you say ‘Do you think May would move across the country if SGI wasn’t shown by the data to be clearly the best place for her to win.’
There is also the question, “Do you have the confidence that if the data and strategic considerations showed that Guelph was the best shot for to win, that she would be willing to run against and unseat a Liberal?” [Which would be likely even if she did not win.]
Elizabeth May asks that everything be put into her winning a seat. But is SHE willing to lay everything on the table?
Loved the link to the Shun Lunn campaign site. I had hoped the idea of non-competes between LIBS/GREEN/DIPPERS in ridings currently held by the CPC would have been adopted. Unfortunately not going to happen. Happy, happy Harpo with this outcome!!
Camille – it’s disturbing that you’ve removed my comments.
Greg, as we both know, the two comments you posted yesterday disclosed confidential Green Party information, forcing me to remove them. As per the confidentiality agreement you signed with the Green Party of Canada, it is improper to disclose information that is not public. You’re welcome to resubmit any comments you like, but be advised that I will not publish comments that disclose confidential information.
A few points:
(1) Ontario, not BC, is the GPC’s base (which I would’ve thought as the GPC’s ON representative you would know!). There are 3 times as many members within less half the distance of Guelph vs Saanich. Look no further than LNC to see what this means.
(2) A party looking to win its first seat must run its best candidate in THE greenest riding, not just “one of the greenest ridings”. Anything less is bad campaign strategy, since, as you noted, “the Greens have made electing Elizabeth May our top priority in the next election.” I’ve shown quantitatively and qualitatively why Guelph is the better choice.
(3) Tommy Douglas represented what is now simply Nanaimo-Cowichan, not Saanich-Gulf Islands. The Gulf Islands, sparsely population back in 1968, were included with Nanaimo and later paired with Saanich, but make no mistake, Douglas’s riding was Nanaimo, which differs quite a bit from Saanich (the former being strongly working class, thus NDP-friendly).
(4) Claiming that any riding the Liberals managed to hold onto while Dion was leader is a bad riding for May is simply non-sensical. Valeriote’s vote total dropped 6 points, the same as the Liberals across Ontario, so it was dragged down along with everyone else. Dion was a “green” Liberal; Ignatieff abandoning the green agenda actually only helps Greens in Guelph. Plus, my assessment factored in current polling.
(5) You’ve got it backwards: Valeriote is a weak, not strong, Liberal and Lunn is a strong, not weak, Conservative — electorally speaking. Valeriote barely won with just 32%, one of the lowest thresholds in the country. It takes pretty contorted logic to claim that a 1st term opposition MP is a weaker opponent than a government Cabinet Minister who has held his riding for over 12 years.
(6) You’re also kidding yourself to think that the 4th fastest-growing riding the country, on the edge of the largest metropolitan area (GTA) in the country with many more newer (and younger) residents is going to be less receptive to a candidate from outside the riding than the 3rd oldest riding with many long-established residents in an area with a far more self-identified island culture. Culturally and demographically, Guelph is a better option.
(7) May is a vote magnet, no question. But she has that advantage in Saanich or Guelph. Either way, she still has a gap to close. But the gap is smaller in Guelph (about 1/3 as much) and you’re starting with more in Guelph (several thousand in IDed supporters and a sizable portion of the riding canvassed vs essentially from scratch in Saanich). Moreover, the threshold to win is lower in Guelph (about as low as it gets), and there is greater potential to steal votes from the incumbent (Greens pull more from ON Liberals than from BC Conservatives), which means the gap is closed twice as much by doing so.
(8) It’s ironic that you claim that Nagy had everything going for him (best Green campaign, endorsements etc) — things that they earned — and didn’t win, yet fail to see that Briony Penn had a far, far greater advantage (the lack of NDP candidate, by virtue of chance) and still lost. You also overlook that Penn had the advantage of getting Liberal party votes (recognizing that the majority of people vote by party), an advantage that May doesn’t have, and the NDP will have a candidate this time.
(9) 56.57% voted against the Conservatives in Saanich vs 67.78% against the Liberals in Guelph — 20% more. There’s greater potential to rally non-Liberals around May in Guelph than non-Conservatives around May in Saanich.
I appreciate that you feel the need to justify choosing Saanich over Guelph, but unfortunately, by any quantitative or qualitative measure, Guelph is a better choice.
Internal polls, while useful, should not be the deciding factor. First, they measure only latent support, not the ability to actual deliver results. But more importantly, the margins of error are too high in a single riding poll — for example, if they used a 500-person poll, it would have a 9-1/2 point range — so riding polls give only the roughest of idea of relative strength. And if the results overlapped within the margins, then it doesn’t really say much. Moreover, they are flawed this far ahead of the election because we cannot prompt for other party candidates other than the incumbent (since they haven’t been nominated yet). Ironically, they aren’t as reliable as my methodology of using aggregated regional polling data, adjusting for historical trends and candidates (which carries a MOE of +/- 1.5%). Here’s what I had for May’s two previous attempts, which as you can see aren’t too far off what happened.
LONDON NORTH CENTRE
Party / Candidate / Predicted / Actual
LIB / Glen Pearson / 33-35% (34% avg) / 34.9%
GPC / Elizabeth May / 22-24% (23% avg) / 25.8%
CPC / Dianne Haskett / 23-25% (24% avg) / 24.5%
NDP / Megan Walker / 17-19% (18% avg) / 14.1%
CENTRAL NOVA
Party / Candidate / Predicted / Actual
CPC / Peter Mackay / 41-44% (43% avg) / 46.6%
GPC / Elizabeth May / 33-36% (34% avg) / 32.2%
NDP / Louise Lorifice / 20-23% (21% avg) / 19.6%
Second point re: demographics, seniors in particular. The polling is crystal clear about this: Green support is inversely proportional to age: 26.9% in the < 25 demographic (highest of any party), 5.8% in the 65+ demographic (lowest of any party). That Saanich has the 3rd highest senior population in the country should be very concerning to the GPC.
In all fairness, if the Campaign can target an effective message on seniors, and if they have a strong enough ground war to deliver the message, one-on-one, then that’s the mechanism whereby the win may be possible. Problem is that it’ll take a lot of work to narrowcast the message, and it must be narrowcast because broadcasting a Conservative priendly message will turn off more Liberal and Dipper voters than could be poached from the CPC.
I don’t know that there is ANY Canadian political party that does narrow casting on that scale in a single riding.
As far as I know, the Conservatives are far ahead in doing it. But even they have never assembled the resources to do it on the scale required.
If everything goes right, this campaign COULD achieve a lot of things it appears unlikley to be able to pull off. But I think this particular possibility is outside even that super-optimistic realm.
On the other hand… if the SGI campaign snaps immediately into discipline and focus and seamless operation, and we don’t have a general election for 2 years…. that could develop the kind of depth of voter IDing required for this much narrowcasting, and the sophistication at tight messaging, and…
Ken, you are right and wrong (does that surprise you coming from me?)I have managed Marketing and Sales since the late 1980’s. It has always surprised me that what would be a commonplace Campaign in the private sector 20 years ago, is considered cutting edge, and over the top in Canadian Politics in 2009. There is absolutely nothing conceptually wrong with conceiving, and implementing a communications plan as I thumbnailed above. It’s a question of resources, both human, and fiscal, plus moderate skill, and as you said, time.
Many years ago I was told by the GPO Finance Chair that an idea I proposed couldn’t possibly work, because it was so effective that if there wasn’t a problem with it, then the ‘other Party’s’ would be doing it. I’ve build some pretty nifty, and sizeable businesses looking for things that the other guys don’t do, and then doing it, and refining it. Politics is the same, except the things that could be done are really old potato’s. The much vaunted Conservative ‘expertise’ at direct voter contact, is really very conventional, and 20 years old out there in the ‘real world’.
Well, we have now a long running differenec over, each with considerable experience to draw on, what is easily [enough] achieved. We have even differed on what is feasible for the Liberals to achieve, let alone something about Greens where you have a stake.
I’ve just noticed that you claimed the Nanaimo-Cowichan-The Islands from an earlier representation order was the same riding as Saanich-Gulf Islands now, but I would strongly dispute that.
North Saanich and Sidney are nothing like Nanaimo, Ladysmith and Cowichan. All the two ridings would have had in common were some of the Gulf Islands.
The 1974 riding that shared more in common with Saanich-Gulf Islands was Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (described as “consist[ing] of the southern part of Vancouver Island and off-shore islands”), which was held by a Conservative during that time.
I don’t know if this is confusion or a deliberate effort to try and gain some advantage through a tenuous connection to Mr. Douglas’ legacy, although I have my suspicions. Certainly John Fryer would know the difference between the two ridings, or ought to have.
Elizabeth May is no Tommy Douglas, not even close, and it was more than a little nauseating to hear her intone his name in that recent interview with Barbara Yaffe trying to claim some of his legacy.
Glad to see that Greg Morrow knows the difference.
A reader: yes — it would be more accurate to say SGI contains part of the territory once covered by Nanaimo–Cowichan–The Islands, and I’ve edited accordingly. No “deliberate effort” to do anything, in particular. Like Elizabeth, I have a great deal of respect for Tommy Douglas, and simply happen to think it’s a cool factoid.