Greens surge in BC as May considers Saanich–Gulf Islands
I don’t tend to place too much stock in any one poll, but Monday’s Harris/Decima poll is impossible to ignore. As the Globe put it,
“A month-long surge in support for the Greens in British Columbia turned that province into a four-way race, with the Tories at 28 per cent, the NDP at 26 per cent, the Greens at 24 and the Liberals at 20.”
But the most exciting aspect of these numbers is not simply that the Greens are riding high at 24%. The best part is that, as the Harris/Decima voting intentions graph indicates, this upward surge is part of a trend that began a month ago. And what else happened just over a month ago? Media began running with the story that Elizabeth May is considering running in Saanich–Gulf Islands in the next election.
It’s highly likely that this huge surge in support is related to May’s potential candidacy in the province, and it appears voters are responding positively to the possibility that she will run in Saanich–Gulf Islands. Although she has yet to confirm her intent to run in the riding, I’m going to take these polling data as a further indication that it’s a good idea.
Wow. Pretty impressive.
(this is what I said at Dave Bagler’s site)
I know it’s fun to dream about the possibilities, but any single poll should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism. If we see a half-dozen polls across all the pollsters showing the Greens at 24% in B.C., then we’re talking!!! Case in point: 4 days before the last election, the very same pollster (Harris-Decima) put the Greens at 21% in B.C. (they got 9.4%).
Averaging the latest poll from the 5 major pollsters gives the GPC 14.9% in B.C. (including the 24% H-D poll, which definitely looks like an outlier at this point). Not including the H-D poll, the average is 12.7%, which is right around what the last polling average in the 2008 election showed (the GPC got about 3 points below their polling average).
So while it’s good to be optimistic, it’s better to be realistic. The numbers say the GPC is right about where they were last time.
[...] http://www.camillelabchuk.ca/2009/08/25/greens-surge-in-bc-as-may-consid…; [...]
The graph is a little small, but it appears that support for the Greens nearly perfectly mirrors support for the Cons in BC. To me that signifies one of two phenomena: 1. support for either party depends on the issue-du-jour or 2. Cons supporters and Greens supporters are drawn from the same pool and the simply bounce back and forth between parties. A combination of these two may also be possible. Or, a third option, I’m playing the role of just another politico looking for interesting trends that don’t actually reflect reality.
What’s perhaps more important is the role that norms play in our life. If we perceive widespread support for a particular party – especially within one’s own demographic – we’re much more likely to support that party. It’s a build of an “if we build it, they will come”, or rather, “if we claim it, it will happen”. So this kind of news – regardless of accuracy – is generally good for the party.
Looks to me like the BC Liberals may be hurting their federal cousins. The HST may be a large factor in this shift, if it continues to hold. Call it a case of great timing.
The Harris/Decima poll has been largely discredited.
@maudie: Do you have a link to a story discrediting the poll or other evidence that you could post?
It appears as if we are close to the tipping point in some areas of B.C. Elizabeth should grab a bike – ok train ticket then, and head out to B.C. to take advantage of this media opportunity. In a few more weeks, we can see if the these poll results are validated by another polling company.
FYI, latest EKOS poll (Aug 19-25) puts the Greens at 12.9% in B.C. The margin of error is +/6.4%.
FYI, latest Angus Reid poll (Aug 25-26) puts the Greens at 10% in B.C.
see http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/687829