Maclean’s feature on Elizabeth May and Saanich–Gulf Islands
If you haven’t seen it yet, Aaron Wherry’s piece today in Maclean’s, Canada’s national news weekly, is worth a read. Wherry analyzed Elizabeth May’s decision to run in Saanich–Gulf Islands, and I was interviewed for the story. Here’s my quote:
Camille Labchuk, May’s former press secretary and now a member of the party’s federal council, is slightly less esoteric. Presented with the conventional wisdom that a riding such as Guelph, Ont., where Green support has improved over the last three votes, might make more sense, she undoes the notion with logic of her own. “In the last election, the Liberals ran the worst campaign ever in the history of the Liberal party, but Guelph still sent a rookie Liberal MP to parliament by a decent margin,” she notes. “Saanich, on the other hand, the Conservatives ran arguably their best campaign ever, and probably the best campaign they ever will run under Stephen Harper … yet Gary Lunn barely managed to hold on to his seat. There was a very strong anti-Lunn campaign, it just didn’t quite manage to crystallize enough around one candidate.” Both May and Labchuk arrive at approximately the same conclusion. “When you introduce someone like Elizabeth May into the equation, now you’ve got a rallying point,” says Labchuk.
An elaboration of these points can be found in a post I wrote last month, but I would emphasize the point that Elizabeth May is highly appealing to a broad segment of voters. As her two previous runs for office show — where she managed second place finishes, shocking pundits — May is able to translate this appeal into support at the ballot box from those who have traditionally supported other parties. Harnessing this appeal will be key in her quest to represent SGI in Parliament, and I’ve no doubt she’s up to the task.
I must also point out that I fundamentally disagree with Briony Penn’s assessment that with “two strong women candidates running on basically the same platform, Gary Lunn’s going to laugh all the way to Ottawa again.” First off, the only thing laughable here is Penn’s assertion that the Liberal platform is in any way similar to the Greens. Uh, is she even talking about the same Liberals here? The Liberals whose leader Michael Ignatieff trips all over himself to declare his undying love and support for the tragic and scandalous tar sands? The Liberals who cannibalized their last leader (Dion) who actually did have some green cred? Briony Penn, get real. Penn’s comments are reminiscent of the usual garbage old-line parties will spew when confronted with the Greens — that we will somehow split the vote and elect Conservatives. If we’re going to tread down this tired old path, I would simply point out that Elizabeth May’s two second place finishes would actually indicate, under that logic, that it’s other parties who “split the vote”.
At any rate, I’m incredibly excited that May’s announcement has been made, and that the Green Party is dedicated to electing our leader. From what I hear from friends and colleagues in the riding, the response to her announcement (and the pre-announcement hints all summer) has generated a tremendous amount of excitement and enthusiasm for her candidacy. This is no surprise — SGI is already one of the (small-g) greenest ridings in the country. After the next election, I hope to be able to say it’s the (capital-G) Greenest riding in Canada
While there’s some value to running all over the country (centrally in Ontario, in the East, in the West) in her first three elections, I don’t see the Saanich / Gulf Islands move as very wise or uncontroversial.
This “old-line parties” drivel which is recycled NDP drivel from the 1970s needs to end, and some serious questions need to be asked, notably about where parties have strategic interests and where they are likely not to be able to muster a fight. I don’t think polls really reflect the realities at least not as they’d be realized on the ground.
In my opinion Bill Casey’s riding of Cumberland was still her best bet because the parties are so weak there that all of them combined could barely muster a quarter of Bill’s 22,000+ vote. There is no logical successor with the Cons very divided and the Liberals having run (last time) the former head of the rump PC party.
SGI on the other hand has very strong contentious party organizations and is prone to dirty tricks such as the election-night phone tree to NDP voters urging them to vote NDP (despite the actual NDP candidate having dropped out). The fact that Penn of the Liberals, West of the NDP, are both former Greens, and that there’s another Green contesting May’s nomination, also means it will be relatively easy for other parties to make an issue of the GPC’s internal divisions. None of this would be quite so visible in NS but given the Crookes cases were all filed in BC, and frequent infights inside the GPBC, the press isn’t as likely to ignore them there. It’s definitely a risk and I think the best rhetoric to support it is that it’s an obligation to run just for regional balance, having run already in both central and Atlantic Canada. Meaning, if she doesn’t win in SGI but comes second again, it’s time to perhaps go where her heart is and run in Cape Breton, whether Roger Cuzner retires or not.
your 1st link is http://www.camillelabchuk.ca/2009/09/09/macleans-feature-on-elizabeth-may-and-saanich-gulf-islands/on%20Elizabeth%20May%27s%20decision%20to%20run%20in%20Saanich–Gulf%20Islands not the article at
http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/09/09/im-mildly-curious-about-my-future/
Oops, thank you for catching that, Daryl. I guess that’s what happens when one posts hastily in between law school events!
“Meaning, if she doesn’t win in SGI but comes second again..”
…then she’s finished, no matter how many fresh young women kept ignorant of May & Carr’s past behavior she stacks her council with.
Former Green: first,I would put much more weight on your comment if you actually had the courage to sign your real name. Second, your sexist and ageist undertones are beneath all of us. Third, I was the only young woman elected to council last time, and I didn’t need anyone’s help to do it. Finally, I’m quite aware of the past behaviour of Elizabeth May and Adriane Carr. May grew the Sierra Club of Canada into an influential NGO, has been a tireless advocate for victims of the Sydney tar ponds, is an officer the Order of Canada, and has taken the GPC to new heights. Carr was responsible for the exponential growth of the GPBC, was the first Green leader in Canada to make it into televised leaders’ debates, and is an effective and committed activist on many issues.
Great post Camille! I live on Vancouver Island and I think there will be a lot of green volunteers coming together to help out in the riding in the next election. That seems to be a big part of winning, so I’m not as skeptical about her chances as some.
Go Elizabeth go!!!
She appeared on the radio and admitted that in a by-election Cumberland was her first choice, but that Harper had cheated the people there of a chance to be represented by anyone but a big party stooge (OK my words not hers). Another abuse of discretionary PMO power.
Given the SLAPP lawsuits flying around the GPC 2005 to present, it’s quite understandable for anyone not to sign any criticism of its leader.
That said, it seems to me that running in central then Eastern then Western Ontario to build up regional support is defensible even if it means a loss. No other Green leader could carry a seat anywhere else, and anyone that claims so is just making it up out of wishful deluded thinking. The electoral system penalizes parties with widespread national support and rewards regional parties like the Bloc, and there’s just no way around that. A Green MP would still have to defend with difficulty when the party machines decided to eliminate the nation-wide threat by targetting that one MP, so it will never be an easy ride.
Given the SLAPP lawsuits flying around the GPC 2005 to present, it’s quite understandable for anyone not to sign any criticism of its leader.
That said, it seems to me that running in central then Eastern then Western Canada to build up regional support is defensible even if it means a loss. No other Green leader could carry a seat anywhere else, and anyone that claims so is just making it up out of wishful deluded thinking. The electoral system penalizes parties with widespread national support and rewards regional parties like the Bloc, and there’s just no way around that. A Green MP would still have to defend with difficulty when the party machines decided to eliminate the nation-wide threat by targetting that one MP, so it will never be an easy ride.