Election timing and why we need PR
Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe this week decided to prop up the Harper government on an upcoming confidence vote, meaning that the threat of an election has been acutely diminished.
In election speculation conversations with friends over the last week, I predicted all along that either the NDP or the Bloc would end up voting with Harper, thereby staving off an election. The reason I did not foresee an election is because election timing hinges, essentially, to two things — public opinion polls and self-interest. In the present scenario, no party had a strong interest in provoking an election because substantially improved polling numbers are simply absent. With an election this week (keeping in mind current polling figures) the Conservatives would likely lose seats. The NDP would almost definitely lose seats. The Liberals could gain seats, but not as many as they think they can gain if given more time to prepare for an election. The Bloc could pick up some Conservative seats, but that’s a big “could”… it’s hard to say.
Of course, anything could happen during the course of an election campaign, and pre-writ polls often differ wildly from election day results. But the point is, political parties are governed by self-interest, and the absolute best predictor of when an election will fall is whether polling indicates an advantage is to be had by parties representing enough votes to bring down the government.
There’s a growing sense that Canadians are tiring of self-interested political parties and their little power games. My prescription for this electoral dysfunction? Proportional representation, so that Canadians get what we vote for, and so that parties are encouraged to work together cooperatively, and in stable governing coalitions that represent the majority of voters. I’ve long been a fan of minority parliaments, but I would be a greater fan of a minority situation produced by a PR voting system instead of our out-dated first-past-the-post system, which distorts election results, favours regional splinter parties like Reform and Bloc, shuts out smaller parties, and leaves politicians at each others throats and continually playing games of election chicken.
If you’re sick of posturing and unfair election results, I urge you to check out Fair Vote Canada, and help advance a fair voting system as a solution to our current political mess.
Green voters are now unrepresented. Equally, Alberta Liberal voters are unrepresented in the House, as are Toronto Conservative voters and Saskatchewan NDP voters. Meanwhile, in 2008 it took 86,203 federalist voters to elect one Quebec MP, but only 28,163 Bloc voters.
So why doesn’t someone do something?
In 2008 it took 449,013 non-Conservative voters to elect one Alberta MP, but only 30,450 Conservative voters.
In 2008 it took only 21,887 Toronto Liberal voters to elect an MP. Toronto Liberals keep getting a big bonus, for the last six elections in a row.
Is it because the Conservative Party has been run from Alberta, while the Liberal party has been run from Toronto?
We have to make this a multi-partisan drive for democracy.
In a country of solitudes, where parties are comfortably entrenched in their strongholds, will nothing change?
When will Conservative activists outside their Party’s strongholds, and Liberal activists outside their Party’s strongholds, be more vocal? They must be thinking “what are we, chopped liver? These regional bonuses are bad for Canada. And the Bloc’s bonus keeps paralyzing Parliament.” When will they say it in public?
http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2009/09/bloc-bonus-and-other-chronic-bonuses.html