The Greens have made electing Elizabeth May our top priority in the next election. With this in mind, we have focused on determining which of Canada’s 308 ridings is the most fertile ground for a Green breakthrough. It’s no secret that polls have been commissioned, and that several ridings have been under consideration, including SGI, Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, Guelph, and, until recently, Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley, where a by-election will eventually be called to replace the formidable Bill Casey. When May announces her chosen riding, I know this crucial decision will be made based on the best available polling and other information.

Personally, I’ll be very pleased should May decide to run in SGI. Of all the ridings under consideration, it’s abundantly clear that SGI offers the very best shot at sending May to Parliament. Here’s why.

If the Green Party has a base, it’s in BC. The GPBC, founded by Adriane Carr in 1983, was the first Green Party in North America, and, as a result, Green politics have been on the radar for decades in BC. British Columbians are used to considering the Green Party as a viable alternative to the old-line parties (the GPBC consistently brings home 8-12% of the vote — more than in any other province). It goes without saying that environmental protection is a hot issue in BC, and there’s a clear recognition that Greens have the best environmental policies. BC voters have already elected many Greens to municipal governments. All of this to say that BC is Green-friendly territory. With many seasoned Green campaigners in the province, a SGI run for May would also mean an influx of experienced, BC-knowledgeable, high-quality volunteers.

SGI is already one of the greenest ridings in Canada. Voters there have given serious consideration to the Green Party as an electoral force since the 2004 election, when the riding was touted as our best chance to elect a Green, with candidate Andrew Lewis winning a record 17% of the vote — the best ever federal result ever to that date. Provincially, Lewis won over 25% in 2001. In recognition of the popularity of the Greens in SGI, the Liberals and NDP recruited former Green activists as candidates in the 2008 election — a clear indication that voters in SGI hold Green values near and dear, and that our issues are ballot questions.

Also relevant is the strong anti-Conservative sentiment in SGI. Conservative cabinet minister Gary Lunn has held the riding since 1997, but has managed to keep his seat only because the progressive vote is split between the Liberals, NDP and Greens. Progressives in the riding have acknowledged the problem of vote splitting and have gone so far as to launch a Shun Lunn campaign, encouraging voters to rally around one of Lunn’s opponents to vote him out. Strategic voting website Vote for Environment also showcased SGI in 2008, urging voters to vote Liberal to defeat Lunn. Liberal candidate Briony Penn came within a few points of knocking off Gary Lunn. Clearly, many voters in the riding want to rid themselves of Gary Lunn, but have been unable to rally around a single opponent. Introduce Elizabeth May into the equation, and you’ve got a rallying point. In previous campaigns, May has easily built support among voters who usually support other parties, and I expect SGI would be no exception.

Of less significance, but still noteworthy, is that Tommy Douglas represented the Nanaimo—Cowichan—The Islands from 1969 to 1979, which then encompassed part of the territory now included in SGI. Perhaps a further indication of SGI’s historical progressive leanings.

Some Greens think May should run in Guelph, based mostly on the fact that the party did well there last time, and that it’s near Toronto.  There are actually compelling reasons for May not to run in Guelph. The overwhelming consideration is that Guelph was won by rookie Liberal Frank Valeriote in the October 2008 election, despite Stephane Dion’s disaster of an election campaign. Any riding that could elect a first-time Liberal, despite horrendous approval ratings for Dion and after the worst national Liberal campaign in history, is not a smart bet for May. Valeriote’s victory indicates the strength of Liberals in the riding, and the dedication of Valeriote’s base. Although Green Mike Nagy was a fantastic candidate, ran one of the best campaigns in the country and was endorsed by the Guelph Mercury, it was not enough to block a Valeriote victory. Valeriote has an additional advantage in that Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff is becoming more popular and is getting his party’s act together.

Gary Lunn, on the other hand, is vulnerable. He is widely viewed as a poor performer in cabinet, and was punished for his failings as Natural Resources minister (remember the first isotope crisis?) by being demoted to Minister of State for Sport in 2008. Conservative popularity is waning. And he was nearly knocked off by his (greenish) Liberal opponent last time around, despite the aforementioned Worst Liberal Campaign Ever. Given the expected dynamic of the next election campaign, a weak Conservative is a far easier target than a stronger Liberal.

Also, consider the local press reaction to the possibility of Elizabeth May’s candidacy. When news that May was considering Guelph reached the local media, the Guelph Mercury rejected her candidacy, opining that a local Green should run in Guelph. In Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, the Owen Sound Sun Times stated, in no uncertain terms, that BGOS is “the wrong riding” for Elizabeth May, and that she would be dismissed as a “Johnny-come-lately”. In contrast, SGI media view her potential candidacy more favourably.

And what of Elizabeth May? After a mere three months as Green leader, May pulled in 26% of the vote in the London North Centre by-election, surprising the nation with her second place finish. Despite pundits’ predictions of a last-place finish in Central Nova, seen as Green-hostile territory by many, May brought home another second place finish, increasing the Green vote from less than 2% to over 32%. Elizabeth May is a star candidate and a dynamic and tireless campaigner. I worked day and night on her previous campaigns, and saw her win over voters with her charm and wit, solid grasp of complex policy ideas, and inspiring vision for Canada and communities. With her impressive electoral record in ridings that are not seen as especially Green-friendly (and certainly less so than SGI), Elizabeth May has a great chance at pulling off a victory in SGI.

Of course, there’s no doubt that Greens will have to fight tooth and nail for our first seat. Wherever May runs, we will need to run the most airtight ground campaign in Green Party history. We will need to ID every possible voter. We need air campaign strategies to counter the dirty tricks that other parties will inevitably play (SGI has a history of funny business). But with focus, commitment, and by pulling together as a team, we can and must elect our first Green MP in the next election.